ESTER
ESTimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of Records.
Estimating Prehistoric Populations with Big Data & Bayesian Modelling
Understanding how human populations evolved over the past 12,000 years is fundamental to studying social complexity, cultural transformations, and human-environment interactions. However, current population estimates for prehistoric periods are often based on outdated models, expert assumptions, and incomplete data.
The ESTER Project (ESTimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of Records) aims to revolutionize population reconstructions by integrating archaeological, palaeoenvironmental, and computational data into a Bayesian Hierarchical State-Space Model. This innovative approach allows us to estimate prehistoric population densities with unprecedented accuracy, incorporating uncertainty quantification and regional variations.
Recent News
- ESTER holds introductory Advisory Board meeting
On the 12th of January 2026, the ESTER project held its introductory Advisory Board meeting, bringing together an international group… ESTER holds introductory Advisory Board meeting weiterlesen - ESTER receives Research of Distinction Award at the Shanghai Archaeology Forum 2025We are pleased to announce that ESTER – Estimating Eurasia’s Prehistoric Population Based on a Large Number of Records has… ESTER receives Research of Distinction Award at the Shanghai Archaeology Forum 2025 weiterlesen
- ESTER – November 2025 News UpdateNovember marks the successful completion of Program Increment 01 (Foundations), during which we established the core technical and organisational infrastructure… ESTER – November 2025 News Update weiterlesen
- Sophie C. Schmidt joins the ESTER teamWe are pleased to welcome Sophie C. Schmidt as Postdoctoral Researcher for Archaeological Data & Proxy Development in the ESTER project. Sophie will contribute to… Sophie C. Schmidt joins the ESTER team weiterlesen
Core Research Pillars
Our research stands on four integrated pillars:
Population Estimates
Provide regionalized population estimates for Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP.
Big-Data Modelling
Develop a big-data-driven methodology for historical demography.
Data Integration
Integrate heterogeneous archaeological, palaeoecological, and statistical data sources.
Open Science
Offer open-access datasets and tools for further research.
ESTER
ERC-2024-COG 101171036
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