ESTER

Estimating the Earth’s prehistoric population based on a large number of Records.

Estimating Prehistoric Populations with Big Data & Bayesian Modelling

Understanding how human populations evolved over the past 12,000 years is fundamental to studying social complexity, cultural transformations, and human-environment interactions. However, current population estimates for prehistoric periods are often based on outdated models, expert assumptions, and incomplete data.

The ESTER Project (ESTimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of Records) aims to revolutionize population reconstructions by integrating archaeological, palaeoenvironmental, and computational data into a Bayesian Hierarchical State-Space Model. This innovative approach allows us to estimate prehistoric population densities with unprecedented accuracy, incorporating uncertainty quantification and regional variations.

Get an Overview

Get an introduction to our goals, scope, and impact.

Meet the team

An interdisciplinary team of archaeologists, palaeoecologists, and data scientists collaborating to push the boundaries of prehistoric demography.

Learn about our methods

From Bayesian modeling to multi-proxy analysis, explore the innovative techniques that power our research.

Explore our findings

Uncover data-driven reconstructions of human demographics across Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP.