ESTER
ESTimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of Records.
Estimating Prehistoric Populations with Big Data & Bayesian Modelling
Understanding how human populations evolved over the past 12,000 years is fundamental to studying social complexity, cultural transformations, and human-environment interactions. However, current population estimates for prehistoric periods are often based on outdated models, expert assumptions, and incomplete data.
The ESTER Project (ESTimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of Records) aims to revolutionize population reconstructions by integrating archaeological, palaeoenvironmental, and computational data into a Bayesian Hierarchical State-Space Model. This innovative approach allows us to estimate prehistoric population densities with unprecedented accuracy, incorporating uncertainty quantification and regional variations.
Recent News
- ESTER at CAA 2026: discussing scale, inference, and reflexive modelling
From 31st March to 4th April 2026, the annual Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology conference (CAA) took place… ESTER at CAA 2026: discussing scale, inference, and reflexive modelling weiterlesen - ESTER presented at the Landscape Archaeology Conference 2026From 18th to 20th March 2026, the 9th Landscape Archaeology Conference (LAC) took place in Bamberg. For the ESTER project,… ESTER presented at the Landscape Archaeology Conference 2026 weiterlesen
- ESTER holds introductory Advisory Board meetingOn the 12th of January 2026, the ESTER project held its introductory Advisory Board meeting, bringing together an international group… ESTER holds introductory Advisory Board meeting weiterlesen
- ESTER receives Research of Distinction Award at the Shanghai Archaeology Forum 2025We are pleased to announce that ESTER – Estimating Eurasia’s Prehistoric Population Based on a Large Number of Records has… ESTER receives Research of Distinction Award at the Shanghai Archaeology Forum 2025 weiterlesen
Core Research Pillars
Our research stands on four integrated pillars:
Population Estimates
Provide regionalized population estimates for Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP.
Big-Data Modelling
Develop a big-data-driven methodology for historical demography.
Data Integration
Integrate heterogeneous archaeological, palaeoecological, and statistical data sources.
Open Science
Offer open-access datasets and tools for further research.
ESTER
ERC-2024-COG 101171036
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