Why Does ESTER Matter?
Prehistoric population sizes are crucial for understanding:
• The emergence of complex societies and economic systems
• The impact of environmental and climatic changes on human settlement patterns
• The spread of innovations such as agriculture and metallurgy
• The human role in shaping landscapes and ecosystems
For decades, estimates have relied on limited datasets, often without confidence intervals or clear methodological transparency. ESTER changes this by applying cutting-edge statistical modeling to a big-data-driven approach that synthesizes diverse records, from radiocarbon dates and pollen samples to settlement data and land-use indicators.
Interdisciplinary Approach & Open Science
ESTER is a truly interdisciplinary project, bringing together archaeologists, palaeoecologists, and computational scientists to build a transparent, reproducible, and scalable framework. All datasets, models, and results will be made freely available to researchers, policymakers, and the public through an interactive data portal.
By pioneering a new standard for prehistoric demography, ESTER will not only refine our understanding of the past but also provide critical insights for disciplines such as climate science, land-use modeling, and historical ecology.
How ESTER Works
ESTER employs a Bayesian Hierarchical State-Space Model to:
✔ Combine multiple independent data sources (e.g., radiocarbon dates, settlement patterns, paleoenvironmental indicators)
✔ Account for missing or uncertain data using probabilistic methods
✔ Provide regionalized population estimates with high temporal resolution (50-year intervals)
✔ Test causal relationships between demographic trends and external factors like climate change or social collapses
The project will focus on Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP, creating the first large-scale data-driven population model for the prehistoric past.